Market Recap - Monday, June 30, 2025
Markets set new records, positive performance across various sectors
Stocks ended the day higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new record closes. The Dow saw a solid gain of 0.63%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 added 0.47% and 0.52%, respectively. The Russell 2000 posted a smaller gain of 0.12%.
Outperformers:
Banks surged, boosted by positive stress-test results.
Credit cards, asset managers, and software stocks also did well, alongside the likes of biotech and managed care companies.
Other winners included aerospace, homebuilders, and cruise lines.
Most-shorted names and retail-investor favorites, including large tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft, rallied.
Laggards:
Autos, commodity chemicals, and paper/packaging stocks were weak, along with trucking, apparel, and cosmetics.
China tech stocks underperformed, continuing the trend of geopolitical tensions weighing on that sector.
Treasuries saw some flattening with the yield curve, while gold rose by 0.6%, and Bitcoin futures gained by 0.4%. WTI crude ended the day 0.6% lower, with oil volatility driven by news on OPEC+ and geopolitical developments.
Trade News:
Trade sentiment remained a focus, with progress in US-Canada talks after Ottawa rescinded its digital service tax. The US and China confirmed a trade framework for rare earth exports, while the EU appeared ready to accept a deal involving 10% universal tariffs, with exceptions for key sectors like pharmaceuticals and commercial aircraft.
Trump’s stance on tariffs continued to evolve, with the president indicating he might send letters informing countries of new tariff rates instead of negotiating a formal agreement.
Economic Data:
June Dallas Fed manufacturing data was slightly weaker than forecast, continuing the trend of uncertainty driven by trade issues.
The June Chicago PMI came in below consensus, with weaker production and employment components.
Core PCE inflation for May was slightly above expectations at 0.2% MoM, contributing to the ongoing debate about rate cuts as Fed officials remained divided on timing.
Fedspeak:
Atlanta’s Bostic and Chicago’s Goolsbee offered more dovish commentary on potential rate cuts later this year, with Bostic sticking to the expectation of only one cut this year, while Goolsbee stressed that economic conditions could worsen before any action is taken.
Powell’s upcoming testimony will be a key focus, with markets watching closely for guidance on rate adjustments.
Corporate Updates:
Robinhood (HOOD) made headlines with the launch of stock tokens and crypto futures in the EU and US, pushing the stock up by 12.8%.
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) emerged as big winners following the positive results of the Fed’s stress tests, with many analysts viewing them as beneficiaries of a favorable capital buffer.
Key Earnings:
GMS (GMS) surged 11.7% after announcing a $5.5B acquisition by Home Depot (HD).
HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) gained 11.1% after the DOJ cleared its acquisition of Juniper Networks (JNPR).
Tesla (TSLA) was down as GOP’s reconciliation bill moved forward, accelerating the phase-out of clean energy credits and EV incentives.
Here's Our Take
Today’s positive market performance was largely driven by favorable trade headlines and strength in key sectors like banking, software, and biotech. While trade uncertainty remains a key theme, especially with regard to the US-China and US-EU negotiations, market sentiment was boosted by signs of easing tensions. As we move into a holiday-shortened week, the focus will likely shift to employment data and Fed commentary, particularly with Powell’s testimony on the horizon. Investors should continue to keep an eye on geopolitical developments and potential rate cuts as these will be pivotal in shaping market dynamics for the near term.
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